Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Undoing, Moneyball and Us

The Michael Lewis book "The Undoing Project" is about the research of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.  Their work is often summarized as being about our human brain circuits and basic rapid impulses.  The PBS program "Hacking Your Mind" refers to their work and mentions the Lewis book, since by appealing to what Kahneman calls "fast thinking" in his book "Thinking: Fast and Slow", politicians and advertisers nudge us in directions that benefit them, regardless of our needs.  The fast part is more ingrained in us and our slower human conscious deliberation kicks in only when we stop and question what we are doing and what we want.


My friend, Dr. Larry Riggs gave a good illustration of the fast and slow response systems.  Walking through the woods, I step on a branch.  It is shaped in such a way that the far end jiggles some dead leaves.  I thought I was alone and get an instant jolt of fear - what was that?  What's there?  Then, a little checking takes place and I realize there is no danger, just surprise.


Our rapid response system has been trained over eons of years and it is aimed at our survival.  It is the system that kicks in immediately, much more so than careful evaluation of alternatives.  The tv program "Hacking Your Mind" shows a very primitive group of currently living hunter-gatherers in Africa, the Hadza.  The narrative voice states that their living conditions are such that they benefit from taking advantage of every chance to eat sugar, fat and salt.  The camera does a quick cut to a modern candy store with hundreds of candies, far more than any human could eat, even over several days.  


We all operate with impulses, basic feelings and rules of thumb that aren't designed for our lives today, which have been very much modified, especially in the last 2 or 3 centuries, with electricity, modern medicine and and sanitation and internal combustion machines.  


Michael Lewis also wrote a book called "Moneyball".  It's about the Oakland A's baseball team, hampered with a lack of funds to pay the "best" players.  The manager turned away from the rules of thumb as to which players were the most valuable and instead had the help of a statistician.  They took a careful look at players's records and found undervalued players who didn't necessarily stand out but had what it took to get a team to the top.  


We are entering a time of big data, careful record analysis and questioning everyday common sense, in sports, in medicine, in law enforcement, in all walks of life.  Older people often sense that the world has changed and in politics, education, and all sorts of important activities, we are on the outlook for better approaches and deeper insight.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

We used to be


The idea here is to feel your own reaction to pictures of babies.  I find I get a lift.


I used Google search page tools settings to find Creative Commons settings.  There are some wonderful images available with no settings on the original search page:

https://www.google.com/search?q=babies&tbm=isch&hl=en&hl=en&tbs&client=firefox-b-1-d&sa=X&ved=0CAEQpwVqFwoTCKiU8biUj-wCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD&biw=1158&bih=513



Cute Baby For Mama Pregnancy Art Silk Wall 13"x13" Poster 041

$6.29

eBay

Free shipping

Halloween Forum Novelties Child Carrot Infant Bunting Costume(0-3M), Adult Unisex, Size: 0-3 

(16)

Baby boys cool western set Photo Prop cowboy Hat & Boots crochet knitted photography photo prop handmade costume outfits

$4.99

Wish

My First Memory Foam Toddler Nap Mat

$28.79

Mattress Firm

(26)

Serta Barrett 4-in-1 Convertible Crib

$349.99

Mattress Firm

(16)

Blush Knit Hat: (sweater) w/ Top Knot - baby turban, winter baby hat, warm baby hat, baby turban, baby turban, newborn hat, hospital hat

$18.45

Etsy


Wish



So Truly Mine Lifelike Play Baby Doll for Kids Ages 3+

$99.99

The Ashton-Drake Galleries Online

Twins, Baby Announcement, Name Reveal, Baby boy, baby girl, New Baby, baby shower, newborn, preemie, personalized,photo prop, knit baby hat

$19.95

Etsy

View all

Free Images : babies, infant, boy, adorable, caucasian, son, newborn, baby  3008x2000 - - 1371909 - Free stock photos - PxHere

infant, boy, adorable, caucasian, son ...

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File:Babies with soft books.jpg - Wikimedia Commons

File:Babies with soft books.jpg ...

commons.wikimedia.org

Babies foot, baby foot, feet, skin, love - free image from needpix.com

Babies foot, baby foot, feet, skin ...

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File:Babies male - 2 months.jpg - Wikimedia Commons

File:Babies male - 2 months.jpg ...

commons.wikimedia.org

Cute Babies photo free image

Cute Babies photo free image

pixy.org

Babies! | Jenna (when she saw how dirty her Daddy's Jeep was… | Flickr

Babies! | Jenna (when she saw how dirty ...

flickr.com

Royalty-Free photo: Photo of two babies | PickPik

Royalty-Free photo: Photo of two babies ...

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Free Images : person, male, child, together, infant, newborn, toddler,  boys, babies, twins, sucklings, portrait photography 4570x3032 - - 520434 -  Free stock photos - PxHere

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Vietnamese Babies Innocent - Free photo ...

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Babies Twins Infant - Free photo on Pixabay

Babies Twins Infant - Free photo on Pixabay

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SnappyGoat.com - Free Public Domain Images - SnappyGoat.com- babies -collage-vintage-twins-baby-1660341.jpg

babies-collage-vintage-twins-baby ...

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Royalty-Free photo: Baby wearing blue crew-neck long-sleeved shirt | PickPik

crew-neck long-sleeved shirt ...

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Cabbage Patch babies | Which baby is real? This picture was … | Flickr

Cabbage Patch babies | Which baby is ...

flickr.com

File:Babies male 2 months.jpg - Wikimedia Commons

File:Babies male 2 months.jpg ...

commons.wikimedia.org

Free Images : person, people, play, child, sibling, family, infant,  toddler, skin, babies, twins, for children, bedtime, human positions  2400x1594 - - 1073632 - Free stock photos - PxHere

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Babies,girl,guagua,free pictures, free photos - free image from needpix.com

Babies,girl,guagua,free pictures, free ...

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Monday, September 28, 2020

Feminine gestures

I was intrigued by the part of "The Birdcage" movie where a gay man who often uses feminine guestures and mannerisms tries to master more typically male movement or lack of it.  Little gestures and movements are interesting.  Once I start looking out for them, I see movements that I have never performed, usually from women during their talking.


A few years ago, I watched a highly educated, academic woman seemingly emphasize a point, maybe tentatively, maybe apologetically, maybe emphatically without wanting to be too aggressive, by flexing both knees at once in a standing position.  Not too much of a flex and done quickly but I noticed with interest.  


The other day, I was talking to a middle-aged, intelligent, warm woman.  As she talked, she entwined her arms, to the point where she could have performed the "here is the church and here are the people".  Her arms were straight down and twined, her palms were facing each other.


The picture shows arms bent at the elbows but the woman could hold her arms straight out and interlock fingers on facing palms.


This morning, my wife examined her fingernails in the midst of a conversation.  A few minutes ago, she waggled her hips while mentioning a possible turn some interpersonal relations might take.  Her comment at the time related to some people possibly helping a woman with a project.


I have never seen a man flex both knees for emphasis, intertwine his arms to be tentative or waggle his hips to indicate a possibility that is uncertain.  Maybe I don't talk to enough men.

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Camera and pen

Camera and pen


Good tools for having a good time, a good life and loving others.  Here's why they are and how they help.


Take the camera.  I like the camera on my iPad but one on a phone will also do nicely.  It is not a matter, necessarily, of having terrific detail or a big closeup.  In fact, you don't need to take many pictures or even one.  You just need to point the device at something you might take a picture of.  It can help to name the object, the scene, the focus deliberately with an actual word you choose.  


The process is much like reading a story you like or making a recipe you want.  It helps move your attention around, some targets close-up and some farther off.  If you physically name the pump, the car, the cat, a couple walking by, your language parts engage and you can tell there is plenty going on in your world.


Similar process with the pen and some piece of paper or a notebook.  Old envelopes that brought bills or ads also work well.  This version can be more introspective.  What time did you wake up?  How was your night?  Did you dream?  Of what?


What did you have for breakfast?  Same as before?  Is that ok or not so much?  What would you rather have?


Up to here, I have eight question marks.  You can use the pen and paper to make a few notes.  They are expendable and don't need to be lovely.  They do need to be legible, at least for you.

  • Waken

  • Night

  • Dream

  • Breakfast

  • Same

  • Judgment of breakfast diet

  • New breakfast soon


It is also possible to jot down the usual subjects that come to mind about now, you know, the stuff you worry about or want or hate or love or miss.  Makes good sense to list at least two things you are grateful for.  Maybe your tongue and your good account balance.  


This is a good time to put aside the camera and the pen and pencil.  Go buy some milk or eggs. Maybe call a friend or pay a bill online.  After about 30 minutes, ask what the camera or pen has left in your mind.  Write about that.  What recurs?  Is it irritating?  Why?  Is it surprising that comes to mind?

  

Check your mood, your outlook.  If you are alert and aware, good work!  If not, try again tomorrow.

Saturday, September 26, 2020

smartphones

I finally got a smartphone and of course, I am getting more and more attracted to it. I worry about security a bit and I can see that Google is right about there being a difference between using a smartphone and a computer.  I have never really gotten used to different laptop keyboards and I prefer a standard size keyboard connected to my computer through USB.  With it, my fingers and hands move the same way and the same distance all the time. I still make many errors composing from my head, which is all I want to do.  I don't have a need to re-type other print or handwriting.  


I am impressed with the conversation ability of text messages and with the value of having a decent camera with me all the time.  It was those two areas of photographs/videos and text messages that made me start seriously thinking about a smartphone.  Since apps can record notes, voices and motion, since apps can communicate in several ways with nearly anyone or leave a message if they can't be reached, it is no wonder that people, and not just young people, are on their phones much of the time.

Friday, September 25, 2020

Commemorating 60 years together

Sixty years together is worth celebrating.  Lynn proposed the idea of The Clearing, a place much like our local learning in retirement campus organization, except with boarding and food.  The place runs on the model of a Danish folk school.  It has been open since 1937 and runs classes in such subjects as photography, wood carving and bird watching.  


We stayed there once for a week-long class with Prof. Jerry Apps, who specializes in writing about recent bygone periods of farming life.  He has many books about family farming in Wisconsin decades back.  


The communities on the west side of Wisconsin's Door County peninsula are in an order that you don't forget if you travel up and down the strip a few times.  The bigger communities of Egg Harbor, Fish Creek, Ephraim and Sister Bay are more memorable than Ellison Bay but that is the one where you can visit The Clearing.  


I know that it can be hard to believe but the food they serve is truly outstanding.


We called for a reservation but were told they were full.  However, they called a few days later to say they had a cancellation.  We were and are thankful.


Sunday, September 20, 2020

60 years

It is hard to believe that we have been married for 60 years.  It will be a few more days before our anniversary and my careful, conservative wife said that she must wait through those days before she actually says how it has been hanging out with me for that long a time.  Naturally, we have thought about how we got together several times and we know the story.  


She was the first person I had ever met that has Finnish ancestry.  Not only Finnish - also Swedish, Cuban/Spanish and Taino.  I don't have any of those lines in my background although I now realize that all humans stem from an African line of development and so I am related to her.  The connection is far enough back in time that we are ok as progenitors.  We actually met as college freshmen but we didn't date until we were juniors.  


At the time we met, I was still thinking about what group I came from and what that might mean for who and what I was.  The same openness that makes her accurately say, joking or not, that it isn't actually 60 years yet has kept her open to new ideas and directions for both of us.  I still cannot predict what she will do or say, so she stays fresh for me.  She is not only original but quite intelligent.  She is good at banter and at standing up for herself.


I suspect that the amount of experience we each had dating others helped us recognize each other as valuable partners.


When we were only in our twenties, 60 years would have seemed impossibly long, even to live, much less be married to each other. Now, the words and the number seem long, but the feeling is not ancient or wearied, but just beginning and delightful.  At least right now, I think the single biggest help to a relationship is looking at what is going on in the present, what is currently felt and said.  

Saturday, September 19, 2020

Outstandingly average

Next month, I am scheduled to give a talk on Zoom about statistics. I studied statistics in graduate school and taught the subject in person, online and on tapes.  Statistics is a subject of the modern age.  As with anything else, the subject can mislead.  When I think of good advice about statistics, I think of the book "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff.  


I don't remember a single equation in the Huff book.  I do remember many visual and numerical tricks that are listed and explained.  For instance, if the meanings of the scales or axes on a graph are manipulated, just about any sort of resulting line can represent the data.  Like this:

A picture of my house:

It is my house from far, far away.


I think I can say that the subject I am thinking of tries to answer the question: What is there?  But it tries to answer such a question when the "there" is complex and complicated.  


So, often the first step is to try to find one number from a large set of numbers that can stand for all the numbers in the set. We get a list of all the ball players and their scores.  Maybe the points they scored, the number of fouls they committed, their salaries.  We expect different values and we get them.  Let's put them in order - not alphabetical but in size, largest first and on down.  We could add all the figures and divide by the number of figures for the "mean".  We could find a value above half of the set and below half for the "median".  We could find a value that is the score for more players than any other value for the "mode".  


Truthfully, it may be that nobody is average, in any of the senses listed.  There are many different values.  We can feel that xxx is a typical number but it helps to remember that most of the players don't have that score.  If some do, we could put their names on a plaque in the "Typical" wing of the hall of fame.  If some player has a typical score season after season, we could celebrate that person as "outstandingly average."

Fwd: This week's internet news, from awesome to awful



---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Mozilla <Mozilla@e.mozilla.org>
Date: Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 2:05 PM
Subject: This week's internet news, from awesome to awful
To: <olderkirby@gmail.com>


Destruction of democracy. Reporting of regrets. Impolite turtles. This is the Mozilla News Beat.
Mozilla
   
 
Mozilla News Beat

Welcome to the Mozilla News Beat, a glance at the best and worst internet news of the week. We hope you enjoy it!


turtle Picture Perfect. The Comedy Wildlife Photography Awards isn't letting a pandemic hold it back. This year's finalists for funniest animal photos are in and you need to see them all. What's your favorite? | via Digg
money-wings Riches to Rags. The multi-billionaire who anonymously gave away $8 billion (not million, billion) to charity has closed-up shop and is now telling his story. Your move, Bezos. | via Forbes
ship Robotic Voyage. These folks certainly had time on their hands. A boat with no passengers, powered by AI, will attempt to recreate the journey charted by the Mayflower back in 1620. Colonization not included. | via AP News
alien Greetings, Venusians. The pronounced greenhouse gas effect on Venus makes its surface uninhabitable, but scientists may have found life elsewhere on the planet. A closer look at its atmosphere shows us a cloud of gas that may have been produced by microbial life. | via NPR
ghost Snap the Vote. Snapchat successfully converted over 400,000 of its users into newly registered voters via a Register To Vote tool within its app. Instagram, if you're listening, please steal this feature too! | via Axios
play Regrets Reporter. YouTube's recommendation algorithm is known to recommend questionable content. What's worse: we've no idea how it works. That's why we launched Regrets Reporter, letting you send us the video suggestions you regret receiving. | via The Verge & Mozilla
prohibited Did it Matter? Mark Facebook as one fewer place where you can keep up with the Kardashians — for one day, anyway. Joining the #StopHateForProfit campaign, celebrities froze their Facebook and Instagram accounts for a day to protest the service's profiting off of hate speech. | via Buzzfeed News
fire Wildfire Misinformation. A lot's happened since the Australian fires back in January (yes, that was this year). Not only are the fires in the U.S. shaping up to be as bad, the misinformation surrounding the fires is spreading just as quickly. | via Gizmodo
auto Self-Driving Dilemma. When an autonomous vehicle kills a pedestrian, who's at fault? In the case of the Uber self-driving vehicle that struck Elaine Herzberg in 2018, not Uber. Rafaela Vasquez, the safety driver in the driver seat at the time, was deemed at fault for Herzberg's death. | via The Guardian
magnifying-glass Trump Tracking. A new report out of MIT notes that while both U.S. presidential candidates offer smartphone apps, the "Trump 2020" app collects and uses much more data than Biden's "Team Joe" app. | via MIT Technology Review
Q Conspiracy Woes. Conspiracy theorists won't let up. A report by TIME notes how those who share false information sow distrust in traditional institutions while newer platforms like Facebook and YouTube profit. | via Time
facepalm Pathetic. Domestic abuse is up since lockdown started and this increase has translated to revenge porn. U.K. domestic violence charity Refuge noted 1-in-7 women are receiving threats that their intimate photos would be shared online. | via BBC

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