Monday, October 11, 2010

Not "more" but "how much more"

It is easy to read that this vitamin is associated with "more" of something good than that one.  In today's world of propaganda and actual research mixed all together, it can be helpful to train yourself when finding one thing is better than an alternative, to immediately ask "How much?"  How much better, how much more?  Very often the answer is not available.  If it is at all, it may well be hidden in complicated statistical language deep within the academic article being summarized. 

Take daytime running lights on cars while driving, for instance.  I have read that having lights on has been shown to be helpful to avoid collisions.  My car does not have lights specifically designed for daytime driving so I use the low beam headlights.  That use results in headlamps burned out more often than if I saved them for night time.  How much benefit is likely from lights on in the day, anyhow?  An Australian web site says this:
It is estimated that well-designed DRLs could prevent a quarter of all fatal daytime collisions and more than a quarter of fatal daytime pedestrian accidents. Cyclists and motorcyclists would also benefit from being better able to see approaching vehicles.
Note the passive voice "It is estimated" but by whom?  How did they arrive at this figure?

The information stated, though, is a far better estimate than the very common assertion that been found to be safer or better without any measure at all as to how much better.  As soon as we turn our critical faculties onto an assertion, we can see all sorts of loopholes that might be connected to it.  I still like to stay alert to the question of how much better something is than merely accepting all "better" statements unquestioningly. 

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