Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Chances

We just lived a week in a rented house in Arroyo Grande, California for a week's adventure.  Here at home, we met a new couple that just moved near some good friends who introduced us.  Where are you from?  We are from Arroyo Grande.  This is where we say,"What are the odds?"  To tell the truth, we don't care what the odds are.  Besides, this is one of those situations where I try to look wise, educated and statistical even though I don't know what the odds are.  So say a number so we can say "Wow!"


A book that comes to mind about odd and unlikely events is the book "The Improbability Principle" by the British probabilist David Hand. He discusses many aspects of probability and chance.  He describes the bettor who tried to guess the winning numbers of the Connecticut lottery and the winning numbers of the Rhode Island lottery.  The exact numbers were winners but in the opposite lotteries! The Ct guesses were the winners in R.I. and the R.I. guesses were the winners in Ct. He describes a horseman who was struck by lightning while riding.  That man's grave was struck by lightning after he died.  Wow!


Did a demon or evil spirit cause such unlikely events?  It is hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that it is just fortune, just luck, good and bad.  In the fourth grade, I was told to take a pair of shoes to the shoemaker for repair.  When I got to the shop, I had only one shoe! I didn't notice a shoe falling.  I went back over the walk but never found the shoe.  Did you cause that mini-tragedy?

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