Prof. Novella tries to make clear that our brains don't work in as clear and complete a way as we like to think. One of the mental traps that catch us is the "confirmation bias". We have a couple, Mary and John. Mary is quite annoyed when she finds the toilet seat up, especially if she doesn't realize its position until after sitting down. John is pretty much a sharpshooter but realizes he needs to raise the seat before firing. He knows that he does and she knows he doesn't.
Prof. N. makes clear that when the confirmation bias is operating, John notes with pride, satisfaction and some feeling of unfairly being persecuted each time he does indeed raise the seat and lowers it afterwards. Mary notes with a feeling that she is a good observer who remembers accurately when she is treated unfairly each time she finds the seat up. The professor's point is that instances that confirm the position of each are noted while instances that do not confirm the ideas of each are handled quite differently. Each notes with pride times that confirm their own position while sometimes literally not seeing instances that disconfirm their picture.
Of course, either or both could take the nerdy approach and make a chart to keep a record of toilet seat positions. They might install security cameras that could supply data as to what happened when. However, without outside and impartial aid, our couple might go on for years, each staunchly maintaining their view, all the while feeling that they have actual experiences to back them up. Each is correct and both are wrong.
Seeing and noting and remembering information that confirms our ideas, suspicions and theories while not even noticing disconfirmation and forgetting counter-instances that we do notice can relate to more serious debates than what our partner does in the bathroom. It's entirely possible that any idea we hold would look different to us if we had better and more complete data.
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Bill
Main blog: Fear, Fun and Filoz
Main web site: Kirbyvariety
Prof. N. makes clear that when the confirmation bias is operating, John notes with pride, satisfaction and some feeling of unfairly being persecuted each time he does indeed raise the seat and lowers it afterwards. Mary notes with a feeling that she is a good observer who remembers accurately when she is treated unfairly each time she finds the seat up. The professor's point is that instances that confirm the position of each are noted while instances that do not confirm the ideas of each are handled quite differently. Each notes with pride times that confirm their own position while sometimes literally not seeing instances that disconfirm their picture.
Of course, either or both could take the nerdy approach and make a chart to keep a record of toilet seat positions. They might install security cameras that could supply data as to what happened when. However, without outside and impartial aid, our couple might go on for years, each staunchly maintaining their view, all the while feeling that they have actual experiences to back them up. Each is correct and both are wrong.
Seeing and noting and remembering information that confirms our ideas, suspicions and theories while not even noticing disconfirmation and forgetting counter-instances that we do notice can relate to more serious debates than what our partner does in the bathroom. It's entirely possible that any idea we hold would look different to us if we had better and more complete data.
--
Bill
Main blog: Fear, Fun and Filoz
Main web site: Kirbyvariety
