When we were teaching "Futures" in response to the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, I read about the "horseshit hypothesis", a rough prediction of what New York City would be like if horses had not been replaced by autos. Of course, a large modern city, still depending on horses for transportation would have a terrible manure problem. My partner in "Futures" asked what is the history of the future and as far as I am concerned, I found that the success rate of predictions about the future is low. I guess basically futures have been pictured as grim or blissful. Naturally, if the picture is positive, we may not remember it as much as if it is grim and foreboding.
A physician, Dr. Sood, at the Mayo Clinic, asked readers to compare the Wright Brothers plane that made the first successful flight through the air with a modern multi-passenger long distance airplane to see what improvements and research and search for comforts and profit can do.
