Friday, September 3, 2021

Choosing

I am interested in choice and the way we go about choosing.   Myers-Briggs Personality Inventory groups people into those who like choosing and decide quickly, mostly without regrets, and those who shop and reconsider and like to gather more information about the alternatives and choose carefully and slowly, often re-visiting the set of alternatives later to re-decide if they chose wisely.  I am very conscious that I don't want to read a book to decide if I want to read it.  Sure, I sample a book but that often doesn't seem to help.  I can't watch a movie to decide if I want to watch it nor order off a restaurant menu to decide if the dish I order is the one I want to order.


I did my doctoral dissertation on decision-making and the possibility of a simulation game for budding school administrators.  The bottom choice on this page enables a download of my dissertation (1968).  

https://sites.google.com/site/kirbyvariety/dissertation-blog-links

I needed a topic and I found an ok one but I can't say that doing the research or writing has helped me make decisions since then.  The so-called mathematical theory or approach to making a decision is rather hopeless right at the start.  It says to first list all the alternatives.  Basically, that is already impossible.  We can't and don't know all the possibilities.


Then, I should decide how much I like each possibility and give it a "utility score.  I know many scaling techniques and polling methods but they don't help much and often obscure or confuse. Next, I should give each possibility a probability of happening.  Thinking about such a task added a controversial side to probability, called "subjective probability".  That is, pick a number between 0  and 1, like say, 70%.  If that seems to my heart and my gut to represent my intuitive feeling and how likely it is that choice would happen, list that probability for that possible outcome.  By this time, being short-tempered, impetuous and ready to simply decide, I just say "I'll take chocolate."

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