Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Crowded out by machines

I wrote my dissertation on decision theory as a basis for a simulation or game.  The idea was to construct a game that could be used to educate and train people in tricky, difficult-to-explain or master jobs.  I chose the job of school principal as an example.  Many principals have a long list of official duties and responsibilities, each one a full-time job or so.  A principal showed me a list of his duties more than 20 years ago.  I noted near the bottom of the third of four pages of single spaced lines his duty to oversee the gifted and talented programs and efforts of the school.  That was an example of a complex matter, how to accommodate extra-intelligent children in a way that furthered their development.  

Maybe you have seen the tv program "A Person of Interest".  It could be called "a machine of interest" since the two heros are guided by an extremely advanced computer that processes data about people and predicts which of them are about to commit a crime, which the heros may be able to prevent.  Preventive law enforcement would have to be very accurate and astute if it would be a genuine asset to a society and not a depriver of human rights.  Predictions are notoriously fragile and error-prone.

Still, enough data and intelligent programming might be able to do better than people do at anticipating crime now.  Similarly, an app might be able to assist principals or physicians or guidance counselors or parents or lawyers or anyone with their job.  In two instances, insurance companies have found their customers who used particular software to improve their driving alertness and reactions had sufficiently better driving records that they provided the software to the customers free or at a reduced price.  

Since the IBM computer Watson defeated some Jeopardy champions and a chess playing computer defeated a human chess champion, since drone airplanes are waging war and robots are assisting firefighters, more and more people are wondering if the time will come that people have no jobs since they can all be done better by smart machines.

--
Bill
Main blog: Fear, Fun and Filoz
Main web site: Kirbyvariety

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