Robins on patrol

In the 1920's, Wisconsin women's clubs held an election among school children and the robin was elected the state bird.  Right now, we have many green lawns around us and especially on freshly mowed grass, robins patrol.  Their hearing is acute and they hop around and freeze listening for the sound of earthworms moving.  If they hear them, they peck the ground repeatedly to grab the worms for food.

We have many on patrol.

Additional meaning

Lynn read me an item on Facebook. It seems that a couple were driving along a back country road on a cold day in the north.  She was overtaken by the need to urinate. He pulled over, nobody was coming.  She did the necessary work in the road, leaning against the bumper of the truck.  Very much relieved, she discovered she couldn't arrange her clothes properly because the leaning action had frozen her skin to the bumper.  A little tug wasn't doing it.  She wanted to avoid a bad wound.  What to do?

He realized he could free her using his own urine stream and explained the possibility. She approved the plan and it worked.

One commentator observed that their experience gave a new meaning to the phrase "being pissed off."

Different devices, same messages!

I am working on myself but I have trouble not grasping that the email I just looked at on one device is going to be the same messages even on a different device.  

I have read that people have trouble forgetting what they are doing if they walk through a doorway.  I think that is odd and I suspect my eyes tell me I have passed into a 'new' place and therefore expect things to be newish.  When I use a different device, parts of me probably expect new things, including new messages that I haven't seen.  

One of several factors that attracted me to Google software was that it was available on Microsoft, Apple and other devices.  So, logically, I would think that I would expect my list of messages to be the ones I just finished looking at on that other device.  I expect streamed movies to be the same but it takes alert reminding to expect messages will be, too.

Three great garments

Lynn gave me three Land's End fleece jackets more than 20 years ago.  They have held up and are fine things to wear when it is cool.  I remember geography texts that stated winters in the Great Lakes area were long and the summers short.  In a few days, it will be June, the month that includes the first day of summer but this spring has been one of the coolest since we moved here in 1968.  So, I have had good chances to wear this sort of jacket:

There is a full-length zipper down the front.  She gave me one like this in blue and a black one and a dark green one.  

We moved here because I knew that the University of Wisconsin was a leader in educational research design, a major part of my doctoral studies.  We have lived in Wisconsin for nearly 60 years and they have been good.

"The Body: A Guide for Occupants" by Bill Bryson

We are reading The Body by Bryson and are about halfway through.  As is typical, it is excellent.  He discusses the skin first and works his way in.  

A quote:"Run a finger along a dusty shelf, and you are in large part clearing a path through fragments of your former self."

I have read that our sense of touch is one of the finest in the animal kingdom.  As I age, I find that my hands are always telling about the world.

Bryson says I have about 100,00 microbes on my skin in each square centimeter of it.

Amazon software says I have reached the limit of allowable copying from "The Body" but I repeat that it is a good book and you can get a paper copy for $3.07.

decision-making and beliefs

I wrote my dissertation on decision-making in 1968.  I write that sentence to emphasize that I have an interest in the topic.  I mean the topic of tools to make decisions with.  I just read an article on Cardano, born in the 1600's.  It mentioned that the man consulted astrologers.  As usual, the subject was the irrationality of fortune-telling, crystal balls and related subjects.

That article made me think of the coin in my pocket.  I have taken to carrying a 25 cent piece, a "quarter" (of a dollar) as an aid in decision-making.  I use it for a specific purpose and that purpose is to test my feelings in this way:

When I have trouble making up my mind, yea or nay, I like to assign, say, "yea" to heads and flip the coin.  I flip it in the air and let it land on a cushion or bed without touching it. I look to see whether it lands heads or tails.  Let say I see the "tails" side has landed up.  So the coin indicates "Nay" or not Harry's for dinner or whatever.  THEN, I ask myself if I like that result.  If I feel disappointed, I ignore the coin & go to Harry's.  If I don't feel bad , I elsewhere.  

When you see me come out of the fortune teller's place, be careful what you conclude. 

The situation reminds me of searching a question on the internet.  I have found that other searches by people often extend or re-direct my thinking. As I found with Storyworth questions about my life and memories, I found that their questions led me to subjects and opinions that I would not have found using only my thoughts.

CNN Photos of the Week 5/25/2025

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/22/world/gallery/photos-this-week-may-15-may-22

Words and websites

When I learn of a writer, I am often interested in her or his background, works so far, etc.  I tend to look them up and try to understand a little of their background and interests. Of course, other public figures can be of interest, too.  I have been interested in books since I got my first library card at about age 6, so I tend to meet writers often.  

Maybe 30 years passed between when I first used a deck of punched cards to have a computer do some data analysis and I found I could arrange my own web pages.  I just looked up the number of websites there are currently and the estimate seems to be about 1.2 billion.  It can be handy and satisfying to write for a blog or a website and Google and other companies make it rather easy.

Raymond and Ray

At a friend's recommendation, we watched the movie "Raymond and Ray."  It is about two grown men handling the funeral of their father, a man they have strong negative feelings about.  We learn about the deceased man's parenting and some of his activities but we don't learn much except through the men who now harbor very negative feelings about him.  We were told that it was an unusual film and it is, but it is worth the time.  We saw it on Amazon's streaming service.

Good movie

Sometimes I hear about an older movie and watch it again.  I saw an ad for a current musical called "Death Becomes Her".  I thought there had been a movie with that name and there was.  It was a 1992 film but it was available on Amazon Prime.  Between Netflix and Amazon, many older movies are available.  We watched it last night.  I am confident that neither of us had seen it or knew the story line before seeing it.  I won't reveal the story but I will write that Meryl Streep, Goldie Hawn and Bruce Willis are fine.

Please do it right

I was born as WWII was starting.  I am that old.  For ⅔ of my life, the date included a number for the year that began with "19".  Now, for some mysterious reason, it doesn't.  That is simply wrong.  I want to go back to the correct way of writing the date.  Is that asking too much?

Various ideas

Some days, no topic rings my chime.  I try various ideas in my head, weigh them using unspecified units of weight.  I do have a few thoughts.  I like CNN Five Things format since I can understand that there is a big world and there is too much to ponder everything.

To put my own twist on this post, I will be daring and use a different number instead of 5.  I figure 4 or 6 could fit, too.  I will use 4.

1. Patrick Wood - Mr. Wood is the publisher of the local paper, Stevens Point Journal.  His recent book, Reflections, is a collection of various columns he has written.

2. As I age, I feel indebted to my father for the calm I inherited.  I think I see the same calm in my sister and my daughter. Everywhere, ads try to play on fears and hopes, and it is valuable to be able to view scary headlines and dark movies, pictures and theories calmly.

3. It can be easy to collect evidence of big changes in our lives, change that is ongoing.  We don't use horses for trips, we have other means of communication besides written letters; we usually have long lives.  Change, welcome and unwelcome, is part of life and can be expected.

4. I carry a quarter in my pocket for situations calling for a decision.  You know: heads I do A and tails I do B.  I think chance events happen and I don't think the coin is influenced by supernatural forces.  I do think finding heads gives me a chance to experience disappointment with the result and if the disappointment is strong enough, I ignore the coin.

Seeing things

September 15, 2009

Link leads to a post on my blog that was written on 9/15/2009

CNN Photos of the Week 5/8-15

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/world/gallery/photos-this-week-may-8-may-15

Grading students

I have studied and contemplated grading in schools.  I taught the 5th grade and college students preparing to be teachers and experienced teachers earning master's degrees.  

If you give me a grade, a letter from the alphabet from A to F, my parents or the school principal or other authority may ask why I got that grade.  I guess that in most cases, getting a high grade, say A or B, will lead to fewer questions than if I get a D or an F. Sometimes, a researcher or experimenter or investigator gets people who earned high grades to answer what they remember of the subject connected to the grade.  If the questions are asked within a year or two of getting the grade, the student can answer them.  But if the questions are asked a decade or two later, the former student may deny having studied that subject or getting that grade.

I imagine I have given something close to ten thousand grades but I can't remember to whom.  I would not be surprised if few of the people graded by me remember the grades I gave them.

Whew! I won't do that again

I had to take a course in grad school on individual testing, as in there is a little case with the stuff and a child is going to get the Stanford Binet test or the Weschler test.  We had to administer the test to some required number of children.  The deadline for doing that was fast approaching and I hadn't finished.  I gave the test to my oldest daughter and she did very well. Oh no, now my impression of the two girls will be colored by their relative score!!  Whew!  Both got the same score.  Thank Heaven!  I won't do that again!

Irrelevancies

There seems to be a high level of use of irrelevancies these days.  I remembered the probability statement of relevancy/irrelevancy I read one time:

If P(AIB) = P(AI~B), then B is irrelevant to A, where A and B are events.  

But who wants to get into that?  If I want to say that men are some sort of "superior" to that other sex, I have not been thinking of probability but of my audience.  They seem to be the type to be happy to forget what we have been talking about and switch to discussing the equality of the sexes or the superiority of one of them.

I can try to appear intelligent and brave and capable and to use my capacities to advance us all in some new way.

Watching

I have heard that "The Big Sleep" and "Casablanca" are considered great movies.  I consider "The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming!" and "In the Spirit" greater.  I realize that my particular tastes influence my ideas.  I rewatched both movies in recent nights.  Amazon movies can be rented or "bought".  If they are "purchased", they are in a special higher pay category that allows me to choose to view them without further charge.  I hadn't tried viewing for some years and I wondered if the deal and the category still held the way it had.  

I viewed Russians, which I have done more than a dozen times, again and realized it is, indeed, a superb depiction of a group fear based on a misunderstanding and a fundamental desire to "fight".  While finding how to access the movie, I found that I had quite a few that I didn't realize I did.  "Ruthless People" with Bette Midler and Danny Devito was remembered positively and I watched it again.  Excellent plot and excellent acting, full of good surprises.  The name of the screen writer I remembered came up and with it, a scene in which a passel of young women are chasing one frightened man down the street in the hopes of being close and more.  Didn't Dale Launer write the movie with that scene?  Yes!  "Love Potion #9"!  Be very careful in using the potion.  It can be surprisingly unpleasant.

She said you get used to them

Two favorite movies

I usually name "The Russians are Coming! The Russians are Coming!" and "In the Spirit" as my favorite movies.  The first is more available and known than the second.

Both are available to me without additional charge.  I watched The Russians for probably the 14th time the other day and I saw that my judgment is right on.  For passion, perception of danger and high excitement while completely misunderstanding the situation, it is a terrific movie.  By some current standards, it is a loser: no blood, no enemies jumping out of the shadows, nothing supernatural.  It is available on Amazon if you want to see it.

Mom and pictures

CNN Photos of the Week

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/08/world/gallery/photos-this-week-may-1-may-8

Happy Mother's Day

You know that you got your start inside that woman!  Thanks, Mom!

Mom and pictures

2 Germans

Linda McMahon wrote a letter to the administration of Harvard University stating that President Trump wanted them to act differently and require students to act differently.  But "Harvard" refused.

I called this post "2 Germans" because I think I could find at least two Germans who steadily disliked the goals of Hitler's government.  I might be able to find convincing documentation for 200 or 2 million.  I use the mnemonic of "2 Germans" but there are many other possible words I could use to remind myself that large groups of people contain all sorts of differences of opinion, motivation, intentions and understandings of anything, especially of anything as complicated and ephemeral as "policy".

Men's emotions

Remarks are often made that women are emotional but men aren't.  I think a problem for many men is that they can't feel their emotions very clearly and since it is "manly" to ignore them, they are at the mercy of what might be called "secret" or even "sneaky" emotions

Watching

We watch four streaming services: Netflix, Amazon, PBS and Acorn.  Lynn has a tendency to go for nature shows.   I can often enjoy what she picks but I am highly partial to "Call the Midwife".  That show was once only available on PBS but now it is on Netflix.  It seems authentic and it certainly makes clear that women in the right time of life can and do grow new humans.

My professor friends have made clear that plays were a means of public education in the ancient world and I have learned a little of the influence of films on the people of the world, not just in the US.  Since I have seen many movies and read many books, I am a bit jaded by "mysteries" and too much gore, danger, cruelty is not what I want to watch these days.  The show I keep mentioning, "Call the Midwife" is filled with drama, excitement, pathos and genuine cheer.

On some of my web pages, I state the names of two movies I have watched and enjoyed many times: "The Russians Are Coming! The Russians are Coming!" and "In the Spirit".  Two for Lynn are "Strangers in Good Company" and "Enchanted April".  Both Netflix and Amazon are good sources for an older movie that isn't being advertised but pays off.  So is the app called "Just Watch".

A little Latin

In 8th grade, I could select a language to study the following year.  German, French, Spanish or Latin.  I was intrigued by the chance to study Latin.   That choice guided me to the only city high school where I could get a 2nd year.  In the 2nd year, we read Caesar's Gallic Wars.  I learned the Latin word for "sheath": vagina.   What high school guy is going to forget that?

Yesterday, I wrote that I thought maybe my birthday caused Thanksgiving to occur.  I had noticed that the Pilgrims' holiday came after my birthday so maybe my birthday caused the holiday.  If I became convinced that was true, my thinking would be an example of a well-known logical fallacy that sometimes goes by the name Post hoc, ergo propter hoc ("After that, therefore because of that").  Sometimes, the name is shortened to "Post hoc". It is true that researchers often look for reliable phenomena that seem to relate to an event but hopefully they stay alert to the possibility that none of the correlates are causative.

Maybe it is true

I suspect that my birthday causes Thanksgiving.  Eighty-five times, I have had my birthday and then a few days later, it is Thanksgiving! 85 is a pretty high number, especially when you consider it has been a string of ALL positive occurrences with not a one that has failed!

Changing my mind about delicious

After my 2nd grade, my parents bought a candy store.  Wow!  Delicious foods everywhere.   At the same time, they introduced me to high finance: "Billy, here is a dollar bill.  You will get a dollar each week to do with as you likel"  Wow 2.0!  My money, to be used however I want!

At the time, my preference in candy was candy corn and nonpareils. 

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=nonpareils&atb=v423-1

I am not stupid.   I used my financial power to buy a box of candy corn.  About 75 minutes later, I was done with candy corn for the rest of my life.  My life is still going on and I am still fully done with candy corn.

CNN Photos of the week 5/4/2025

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/world/gallery/photos-this-week-april-24-may-2

Lucky!

"Regression" toward the mean in analytic statistics simply means that if you had good luck in the previous game, you may not have it again in the next one.  Here is a previous post from the excellent Daniel Kahneman about the sneaky phenomenon:

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Top of the class, bottom of the class & luck

The subject is often called by the unhelpful name of "regression effects."  Here is how it works from a famous result by Kahneman and Tversky.  Instructors of fighter pilots always gave their students a severe scolding if they did poorly.  When the investigators asked why the instructors followed that practice, they were told that nearly all the time, a student who did poorly and was sharply scolded turned in a much better performance the next time in the air. 

Anytime, you have an extreme group, either well above the mean or well below average, you have a group whose performance depends to some extent on luck.  To do very poorly, I need to have the luck of having a bad day.  Most days will not be extra bad nor extra good.  So chances are that after a bad day, I will have a more average day and I will not perform quite so badly.  However, my teacher may attribute the improvement to a scolding.  Clearly, choosing a random half of the poor performers to scold but not scolding the other half will shed some light on the power of scolding or snacks or any other treatment.

Notice that the same treatment and the same regression effects ("we all tend to be average" so there is "regression" toward the mean from both high and low ends of a scale) can be used to help low performers but hurt high performers.  If we scold the best performers after a very good job, we can expect them to do more poorly on the next attempt since their luck will be such that they can't do quite as well the next time.  If we confuse the treatment of scolding with the reason for doing more poorly, we will think we have uncovered the treatment of scolding that seems to help poor performers but hurt very good ones.  

The truth will be that scolding has no effect and that after an extreme performance, the next performance will often be closer to average.

Deming saw this in the case of a bank manager.  (Possibly there are school principals who fall into the same problem.)  A bank manager watches the performance of his tellers and at the end of the month, rewards and celebrates the teller with the fewest errors.  That person is given a bouquet of flowers and the Employee of the Month parking space.  Trying to be fair, the same manager scolds the teller with the most errors, asking that person to be more like the shining example person.  A month goes by and the manager goes through the same process.  However, guess what?  The employee of the month didn't do as well this time and the worst person did better.  (Exactly what we would expect from chance operations.).  The manager doesn't understand regression effects and gives the new Employee of the Month the same treatment.  The new worst performer is also scolded, as before. 

Now, what does the first Employee of the Month think?  She or he can easily decide that they have gotten lazy and slipped.  The first person on the bottom, who was scolded, will conclude that she or he has indeed improved. 

If the manager continues this procedure for a year or two, every employee is likely to be told at some time that she or he is the best and at another time, that she or he is the worst teller.  In truth, they are equal and differ only because of chance.  Sickness, fatigue, mechanical accidents, and yes, instances of inattention can create different levels of performance but those differences are neither reliable nor dependable.

Rose-breasted grosbeak

This bird has been visiting our feeder.  Nice to see!

t.ly/q70PL

Nomination for a Nobel prize

(My friend, Dr. Metskas, wrote that he would be honored to have his nomination suggestion posted in my blog.)

I place in Nomination (applause) Donald J. Trump for the Prestigious Nobel Prize, yet to be determined category, Con Man.

He is truly awe inspiring, tapping into the anger of the American People, puzzled about who is to blame for their deteriorating circumstances. Many Americans buy into his bullshit narrative.

People know they are being screwed but have not yet determined the culprits. Is it immigrants stealing their jobs, China, people with unusual sexual identities, government agencies like the CDC, lazy people on food stamps, meals on wheels, or the renegade USA provinces of Canada or Mexico in the gulf of America?

Lets slap on some tariffs on the goods we buy from those bastards and make them pay! That will fix'em. Except tariffs are paid by the purchaser with higher prices and we don't make anything directly or without foreign parts thanks to outsourcing by our own American Companies. Never mind, don't confuse me with the facts!

The effects of his policies have not yet kicked in. In 30-90 days we face a catastrophe of double digit inflation, shortages, closed access to foreign markets, falling financial markets, lack of help from government agencies, etc. One part missing out of 30,000 in a typical car assembly line means no cars (or tractors, or trucks or any equip).

The damage to America is permanent. Our precious Constitution has been desecrated. 

It is truly a tragedy how this marginal individual and his goons , through intimidation and bullying, have alienated and declared war on the entire World.

As the Japanese say, Rotts of Ruck America.

Scott

P.S. Join Bernie Sanders & AOC to fight Oligarchy and bring back America